ICC Cricket World Cup Qualification Scenarios

Qualification scenarios: Who will be in the final four?

The semi-finals and finals are right around the corner. In 3 weeks from now, we will know the ICC World Cup 2019 Champions. 10 teams had started this tournament in contention to win the cup. But as we inch closer to the semi-finals and finals teams are getting eliminated one at a time and the qualification scenarios are becoming more intense. With Australia already qualified and Afghanistan, South Africa and West Indies having been eliminated it is now down to 6 teams to make it into the 3 remaining spots. 



India - Placed 2nd on the points table with 11 points from 6 games, India is most likely to be the 2nd team to qualify for the semi-finals. The equations are relatively simple for them. To qualify they need to win just 1 of their 3 remaining matches. Even a washed out game will probably take them through. The only way India might not qualify is that if the following situations occur - 

• India loses all 3 of their remaining games. 

• Sri Lanka wins their 3 remaining games (comprehensively to surpass India’s superior net run rate), New Zealand wins 1 of their remaining 2 games (they can surpass India on net run rate even if they don’t win their remaining 2 games), and England wins both of their remaining games. 

• It is also possible that either of Pakistan or Bangladesh qualify and India does not. However, India’s net run rate will have to be worse than either of Bangladesh or Pakistan if they were not to qualify.

New Zealand - Placed 3rd on the points table with 11 points from 7 games, New Zealand is also likely to qualify for the semi-finals. They are placed in the same situation as India as they will need just one more win to ensure a semi-finals berth. However, they have 1 less game in hand to ensure qualification and they too have top-ranked sides like Australia and England up against them compared to India who has relatively easier games in hand. It is also possible that New Zealand may not end up qualifying. For that, the following situations have to occur - 

• New Zealand loses both of their remaining encounter against Australia and England. 

•  England wins both of their remaining games and India wins 1 of their remaining 3 games (Although, it is possible that India remains ahead of New Zealand by not winning a single game).

• Either of Pakistan or Bangladesh win both of their remaining encounters and surpass New Zealand on net run rate and Sri Lanka win all 3 of their remaining games. 

•  Even without Sri Lanka winning their remaining 3 games, New Zealand may not qualify. In such a case Australia, India, England, and either of Pakistan or Bangladesh will make it through. 

England - They looked good after their first 5 games with 4 wins and only a solitary loss. However, 2 defeats against Sri Lanka and Australia have now put an immense amount of pressure on them. They sit 4th on the points table with 8 points and 2 games in hand against the mighty Indian and the Black-caps. The entire points table depends on England’s results. Let us see how. 

If England manages to win both games - 

• If they win both they will finish on 12 points and one would believe that it would be enough to go through. If they secure 12 points then they have to hope that Sri Lanka loses just one of their remaining games, which would get them through. 

• If Sri Lanka manages to win all 3 of their remaining games, then England will have to hope that their net run rate is better than Sri Lanka’s. If not then they will have to hope for the impossible: hope that either India or New Zealand lose all their remaining games. 

If England manage to win only 1 game - 

•  If they win only 1 game, they will finish on 10 points which may not be enough to qualify. 

• They will have to hope that both  Pakistan and Bangladesh lose at least 1 game each allowing both of them to finish on 9 points. 

•  They will also have to hope that Sri Lanka manages to win a maximum of 2 games. Sri Lanka’s net run rate looks very poor and it is very unlikely to for them to overtake England on net run rate. In such a case England can afford Sri Lanka tying with them (with 10 points). England’s Net run rate being superior will take them through to the knockout stages. 

If England lose both of their remaining games - 

•  If they manage to lose both of their remaining games they will finish with 8 points from 9 games.

• For them to qualify even after losing 5 games looks tough but it is mathematically possible. They will hope that both Pakistan and Bangladesh lose both of their remaining encounters and also hope that Sri Lanka wins a maximum of 1 game off their remaining 3 games. In such a case both England and Sri Lanka will be tied on 8 points and England with the superior net run rate might advance through. 

Pakistan - Sitting with 7 points from 7 games, Pakistan has a pretty good chance at qualifying for the playoffs after their emphatic win over the Kiwis. They have a slight edge over England, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka for 2 reasons. Firstly, they are on a high after winning their previous 2 games against the Proteas and the Kiwis. Secondly, they have relatively easier opponents in their final 2 games and it is plausible that Pakistan vs Bangladesh might turn out to be a virtual quarter-final. 


If Pakistan win both their remaining games -

•  If Pakistan manages to win their remaining 2 games, then they will finish on 11 points. For them to qualify (and most probably finish on 4th pace), they will need to hope that Sri Lanka loses at least 1 of their 3 remaining games and England lose 1 of their 2 games. 

•  In such a case Sri Lanka and England will finish on a maximum of 10 points. Pakistan will finish on 11 points which will allow them to sneak through to the semi-finals.

If Pakistan win only 1 game - 

•  If Pakistan manages to win only 1 game, they will finish with 9 points. For them to qualify in such a situation seems realistically impossible but somehow is mathematically possible.                                                                                                            

• They will need to hope that England loses both their games and Sri Lanka lose at least 2 of their 3 remaining games. Also, they will need to ensure that Bangladesh loses both their encounters (which means that Pakistan can’t afford to lose to Bangladesh and this encounter becomes a virtual quarter-final if England and Sri Lanka both manage to lose 1 game).  However, if Pakistan loses both games, they will be out of the tournament. 

Bangladesh - They sit 5th on the points table with 7 points from 7 games. They are placed in the same situation as Pakistan but, it is slightly more difficult for them as they will have to take down the only undefeated team in this tournament, India. It is possible for them to still qualify even after losing to India, but for that, they will have to take down Pakistan. 


If Bangladesh win both their games - 

•  If they win both the games, they will finish with 11 points. The qualification process now becomes easy. They need to make sure that both Sri Lanka and England lose 1 game and with that, they will be through to the semi-finals. 

If Bangladesh win 1 game - 

• If they win only 1 game, they will finish on 9 points. They can still qualify but for that, they will have to depend on many other factors. Firstly, they need to make sure that both England and Sri Lanka manage to lose 2 games allowing both to finish on a maximum of 8 points only. Then they have to make sure that Pakistan wins only 1 out of their 2 remaining games (includes one against them). 

• If both Pakistan and Bangladesh managed to win one game each, then Bangladesh will sneak through to the semi-finals because of their more superior net run rate. However, if Bangladesh loses both games, they will have no chance of qualifying for the semi-finals. 

Sri Lanka - Now they sit on 6 points from 6 games. Everybody imagined Sri Lanka finishing with the wooden spoon. But, they have definitely punched above their weight. Now with 3 games left they can finish on a maximum of 12 points, which still may not be enough to qualify. It’s very ironic that in some situations 12 points might not be enough to qualify whereas in some situations 8 points might get the team through. 

• If Sri Lanka wins all 3 games - They will finish with 12 points and if England manages to lose 1 of their games, they will be through. 

• If Sri Lanka wins 2 games - In such a case they will finish with 10 points. For them to qualify they will hope that England to lose both their remaining games. England in such a case will finish with 8 points. Also, they will need both Pakistan and Bangladesh will lose at least 1 game allowing them to finish on 9 points only. However, if Sri Lanka loses all their remaining games they will not be able to progress to the semi-finals.